March Madness!! No NOT basketball–but maybe the BOTTOM OF THE MARKET IN SONOMA COUNTY REAL ESTATE!! NorthBay Business Journal Article by Brad Bollinger Predicts!
March 23rd, 2008 . by Mike KellyCould March be moment for housing?
BRAD BOLLINGER,
BUSINESS JOURNAL EDITOR IN CHIEF
After a record runup in prices, the North Bay housing market peaked in the late summer or early fall of 2005, although the downturn wasn’t widely recognized until well into 2006. Six months or a year from now, experts may point to March 2008 – right now – for when the market bottomed.
Yes, this is going way out on a limb given the volatility, pain and uncertainty in the financial markets today. And hard data isn’t available yet. But neither was it available in August or September of 2005.
What is known is this.
After a record runup in prices, the North Bay housing market peaked in the late summer or early fall of 2005, although the downturn wasn’t widely recognized until well into 2006. Six months or a year from now, experts may point to March 2008 – right now – for when the market bottomed.Yes, this is going way out on a limb given the volatility, pain and uncertainty in the financial markets today. And hard data isn’t available yet. But neither was it available in August or September of 2005.
In the last few weeks, sales of foreclosed and distressed properties have picked up noticeably, according to several people who work directly in that market. Yes, properties are being sold at big discounts off their original selling price, depending, of course, on location. But they are selling, finally.
For now, builders are prudently selling off existing inventory at attractive terms and insisting on a sales contract before starting any new units.
Meanwhile, investors are hovering, some with large amounts of money to spend on the likelihood of big returns in the years ahead.
Reports of multiple offers in what is arguably the best buyer’s market in more than a decade are becoming more common.
In addition, loan limits and terms are attractive. Hundreds of billions of dollars are being freed up by lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to make more mortgages available.
This change in psychology has not yet spread to the broad market. But it likely will once the inventory of foreclosed and distressed properties is liquidated or nearly so, experts said.
When that happens, what one real estate expert referred to as a sharp decline in “normal sellers,” people selling one property to move up – or downsize – to another, should begin to reverse itself.
That may take a few months or more. But there are signs the process may be starting now.
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Brad Bollinger is editor in chief and associate publisher of the BUSINESS JOURNAL. He can be reached at bbollinger@northbaybusinessjournal.com or 707-579-2900, ext. 201. Copyright NorthBay Business Journal
